Grappling With Grey Swans: Conducting Tabletop Crisis Exercises

About 25 years ago I started wondering how my leadership team would respond to Grey Swan events – events we know are possible but we assume are unlikely to occur. 

How would each individual react? Would the group have blind spots? Would some leaders who in normal circumstances shine not do so here? Would someone else surprise the group with their leadership abilities? What areas would throw the group for the biggest loop? How would the group process spotty and changing information? What if for some reason I was not on campus? What would happen when moving with alacrity and deliberateness is important? (This was in the days before universal cell phones and limited internet access.) I decided I needed to see my team in action.

So every year we’ve spent a good 2.5 hours during a leadership retreat – all in person – engaged in working our way through a Grey Swan event. The premise is that I am not on campus. The group needs to handle things without me. The scenarios are fairly elaborate.  There is the initial scenario that is laid out for everyone and then over the course of two hours I drop 3” x 5” cards on the table with additional information. Some of the cards I have written beforehand and in some cases I am making up plot twists as things unfold.  I am there the entire time either dropping additional information or observing the proceedings.  I answer no questions and otherwise don’t participate.

These trainings have become a thing of legend. New team members ask when we are going to do them. Alums of the exercises share stories of past scenarios. Writing the storylines so they feel realistic is important. I am looking to tax the team. These are complex, difficult, and volatile scenarios. Over the years I’ve had people yell at each other. Some have shut down because they become so anxious and upset, while others have started crying. Most perform quite admirably, but not always the first time out.  

We spend a good amount of time reflecting after these sessions. I ask questions including:

• What surprised you the most about yourself? About others?
• What was the hardest part? 
• What scared you the most?
• What did you think the group handled particularly well?
• What additional information or resources would you have liked to have?
• If you were to do this all over again, how do you think the team should approach things differently?

I never want to actually be in a position that we’ve had a bus roll over where many students are hurt and two killed. Or that our campus has flooded and buildings damaged leaving us with no electricity or power and the need to evacuate. Or that Steven Spielberg is filming an Indiana Jones movie, they get behind schedule and they want to finish filming their chase scene exactly where we will be doing registration with new families. (OK, the last one actually did happen.)   

What I want is for the team to practice engaging with crises when the stakes are low. Some years the team leaves feeling confident and other years a bit deflated. In years where things are not handled as well as I would have liked, I do follow up with individuals and often will plan further professional development for the team. 

Not every type of Grey Swan event lends itself to this type of simulation training, but many do.  In addition to doing this kind of exercise with a leadership team, boards may also want to consider engaging in this work. Most of us like to think that in a crisis we would all perform admirably. But individuals can be fragile and teams can be fragile. The best thing to do is figure out your team’s level of fragility or resiliency before everyone is under intense pressure. Teams can work on building the skills to handle Grey Swan events. The great thing is by building these skills, your team becomes more and more capable of adapting to whatever comes their way, crisis or not.